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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: anializer who wrote (37321)	4/10/2010 12:48:26 AM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) of 78726

Anializer - thanks for your kind words. Be assured there is no personal animosity. I think FREE is a potential winner here, but I am not sure about the margin of safety. I am pretty sure that the tangible book value is higher than the NAV but i don't know how much. management disclosures don't give me a warm fuzzy feeling either. We discussed OCNF and FREE at the same time last year and OCNF has not done too well - too much dilution close to the bottom. FREE is better but I am not sure how much. The shipping companies overall have not done too well, I think most of the equity prices are correlated to the intrinsic NAV of their fleet and that NAV has not done much. Why is the NAV so important? Well those companies don't really have any moat, ships are plentiful, as there is a glut coming to the market, based on newbuild orders placed a couple of years ago. The shipping sector is volatile and good money can be made here based on what happened a couple of years ago. I was trying to get more information regarding NAV of ships and was unsuccessful although a more ambitious investor may be able to find the answer - i just don't know with the limited time I have. From a 1st order principle perspective I expect the value of ships to be a more or less linear function of a) age and b) tonnage (assuming ships are a commodity and more or less the same), so one should be able to build a correlation chart and estimate the value of a ship fleet with a decent margin or error. problem is, I can't really find decent transaction values to do this correlation, but I am sure someone smart has done this and knows what these companies are worth in terms of tanker fleet NAV. Frustrating. if someone can find a source regarding recent transaction values that list age and tonnage, i would appreciate it.

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