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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Walter Bagehot who wrote (37330)	4/10/2010 12:48:12 PM
From: Spekulatius	Read Replies (1) of 78703

Walter - great analysis. I agree with your conclusions and the impact of future deliveries that has yet to peak. One argument however that some shipowners make is that deliveries of ships will be delayed or cancelled. The problem is that I have not seen many cancellations (presumably because of the penalties), so i am guessing that everybody hopes that the other guy cancels his orders. As for anializers point , the different size of GNK and FREE does not matter since I normalized to the $/DWTr ratio. i also clearly stated I look at the $/DWT ratio noted in the book and I still believe ,even adjusting for the different size of ships, FREE does not look good in that regard. If one were to look at valuation only the right unit to look at would be $(Enterprise Value)/DWT. FWIW, I checked EXM and GNK and they both seem to have their ships on the book for 0.69M$/DWT, so i think there is some validity to my approach.

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