Haley Barbour's growing influence
A self-described "fat redneck" is the most influential Republican in the country in our latest Friday Line.
Mississippi Gov. Haley Barbour is that rare combination of effective politician and savvy strategist, popular in his home state and revered among the cadre of political operatives who comprise the Republican permanent political class in Washington.
Barbour put on a clinic in "how to be a smart politician" during an interview with CNN's John King earlier this week.
Asked whether Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele was held to a higher standard because he is African American, Barbour dodged that potential bit of political quicksand by turning the question inward -- noting that his background and his "drawl" had gotten him used to being held to different standards.
Barbour will be at it again later today when he takes the stage at the Southern Republican Leadership Conference -- one of a panoply of candidates looking at the possibility of running for president in 2012 appearing at the event. (Barbour downplays his interest publicly but we hear he is more seriously considering the idea.)
Barbour is a first among equals when it comes to influence within the party today. That doesn't mean he can or will be the party's nominee in 2012 -- the whole lobbyist thing is a tough hurdle to overcome -- but it does mean that when he speaks, people in the party listen.
Our full Line of the most influential politicians within the GOP is below. Agree? Disagree? The comments section awaits.
To the Line!
10. Newt Gingrich: Gingrich is actively considering a run for president and has said that he will make up his mind by February 2011. While it's beyond debate that Gingrich is one of the brightest and best "ideas men" in the party, will Republican voters really rally behind a candidate who makes Camus references?(Previous ranking: 8)
9. Scott Brown: The man from Massachusetts has taken on a bit of a lower profile of late as he gets acclimated to the Senate and plots how to smartly capitalize on the huge amounts of political capital he possesses at the moment. Brown will be the most sought-after Republican surrogate on the campaign trail this fall, a nice play to be. The question is what he does for a second act. Brown could do everything right and still lose his re-election bid in 2012 in Democratic-leaning Massachusetts. Knowing that, does he take some sort of shot at national office between now and then? (Previous ranking: 6)
8. John Thune: With the South Dakota filing deadline now passed and no serious Democratic opponent in the field, expect Thune to begin to broaden out his national profile as he mulls the possibility of a run for president. Thune is the "buzz" candidate of the moment and has to move to capitalize on that excitement within the political chattering class before it jumps to the next new thing. (Previous ranking: 10)
7. Rick Perry: The Texas governor's crushing victory over Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison in last month's primary proved -- yet again -- that Perry is among the savviest (and most underrated) campaigners in the country. And, his speech at SRLC was generally well-received although overshadowed by the remarks of former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin. That dynamic will come to be a familiar one for Perry; he and Palin occupy similar space -- Tea Party favorites etc -- within the party but the 2008 vice presidential nominee is the bigger national figure. (Previous ranking: N/A)
6. Marco Rubio: The Florida Republican Senate primary isn't until late August but the speculation about whether Rubio, the former speaker of the state House, will run for president has already begun in earnest. (Politico's Ben Smith and Politics Daily's Matt Lewis make the case.) It's clear that Rubio's star is ascendant nationally -- $3.6 million raised in just 90 days! -- but caution about rising too fast is also warranted. See Allen, George circa 2006. (Previous ranking: 7)
5. Tim Pawlenty: Movement doesn't equal momentum but Pawlenty, the governor of Minnesota, seems to be everywhere these days -- traveling to New Hampshire and Iowa (and Asia), and generally putting the pieces in place to be a serious candidate in 2012. At the moment, Tpaw resembles no one as much as former Gov. Mitt Romney at this time in the 2008 presidential race -- a candidate who, on paper, is doing everything right but remains unproven on the stump. (Previous ranking: 4)
4. John Cornyn/Pete Sessions: As the 2010 midterms draw ever closer -- thrilled! -- Cornyn, the chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee, and Sessions, the head of the National Republican Congressional Committee, become more and more important players in the party. With a national playing field that looks to favor Republicans and history on their side, Cornyn and Sessions should pick up seats. Managing expectations and messages will be the task of the next few months but both men have to feel good about where they sit today. (Previous rankings: Cornyn 5, Sessions N/A)
3. Sarah Palin: There simply is no bigger figure in the Republican party than Palin. Where she goes, crowds and enthusiasm follow. But, there is a difference between enthusiasm and influence. And, at the moment, Palin still has only the most spartan of political operations to take advantage of her massive following. We may look back at 2009/2010 in a few years time and see it as the time that Palin squandered one of the biggest and ripest opportunities in modern American politics. That said, of late, she appears to be doing more of the basic blocking and tackling -- including the release of a House race target list for 2010 -- that serious national candidates must engage in. (Previous ranking: 3)
2. Mitt Romney: Unlike 2008, Romney is picking his spots -- not endorsing in the New York 23 special election, skipping SRLC. The goal is to keep him above the fray and establish the image of him as the adult in the race. By and large it appears to be working, thanks in no small part to the fact that Romney has, by far, the largest and most sophisticated political operation among the candidates looking at running for president. The Massachusetts health care law will clearly be a problem for Romney if the national health care legislation remains a political touchstone for conservatives but it's hard to see how Romney isn't in the final mix for the nomination. (Previous ranking: 1)
1. Haley Barbour: Barbour, as chairman of the RGA, will have a chance to influence races all over the country this fall -- building up his fundraising contacts and further adding to his long list of loyalists within the party. Will Barbour run for president in 2012? Who knows. But, he is, at present, making sure he has that option open to him while building himself into the most influential leader within the party. (Previous ranking: 2)
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