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From: Rarebird	4/14/2010 8:20:18 AM
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Transcendental Market Truths: The Market: The market continues to struggle in its upward trend, something which seems to make the bulls ever more bullish. Once again OEX option traders spent at least twice as much on calls as puts. This extended period of struggling trend is a sign of a very tired market and, despite Tuesday's up close, there were more stocks closing lower than higher. This should be making the bulls more cautious, yet they see it as a sign of underlying resilience rather than the reality that there are fewer and fewer stocks moving higher and more and more stocks topping out. My best timing indicators point toward a top in the middle of May (mid 1200s on the S&P) and that's still the best estimate for a significant trend change to the downside. The lack of any correction since the February low strongly warns that when the market does move into a corrective mode, the downside could be substantial. Yes, the trend is nominally still up, but the distance the market can move on the upside is limited, while the risk on the downside is huge. The SPX, for example could move into the 1200s, since that was the site of substantial volatility on the way down.

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