<a lot of the Chinese ones will fold with the amount of debt that they are carrying.>
If it were left up to the market, then, yes, a lot of Chinese solar companies would be short candidates, even now. However, the Chinese government seems to feel about their solar companies, the way the U.S. government feels about their banks. No matter how badly managed, I doubt they will be allowed to go bankrupt. I think the reason Chinese companies get away with carrying so much short-term debt, is because they know their government will always step in if they get in trouble. The Chinese government may do what the Japanese have done: force the strong to merge with the weak companies, so nobody fails.
It is deeply ironic, that (nominally) Communist governments like China, make the exact same economic mistakes as (nominally) capitalist governments like the U.S.
So, if I short any solar companies (which I haven't done yet, and may never do), it won't be the Chinese ones. |
