Always a possibility.
Now here something spooky, coming as it does from TPTB:
The beginning of the "long descent"?
SG
peakoil.net
The Joint Operating Environment (JOE) 2010
Quote:
Energy Summary
To generate the energy required worldwide by the 2030s would require us to find an additional 1.4
MBD every year until then.
During the next twenty-five years, coal, oil, and natural gas will remain indispensable to meet energy
requirements. The discovery rate for new petroleum and gas fields over the past two decades (with the
possible exception of Brazil) provides little reason for optimism that future efforts will find major new
fields.
At present, investment in oil production is only beginning to pick up, with the result that production
could reach a prolonged plateau. By 2030, the world will require production of 118 MBD, but energy
producers may only be producing 100 MBD unless there are major changes in current investment and
drilling capacity.
By 2012, surplus oil production capacity could entirely disappear, and as early as 2015, the shortfall in
output could reach nearly 10 MBD.
Energy production and distribution infrastructure must see significant new investment if energy
demand is to be satisfied at a cost compatible with economic growth and prosperity. Efficient hybrid,
electric, and flex-fuel vehicles will likely dominate light-duty vehicle sales by 2035 and much of the
growth in gasoline demand may be met through increases in biofuels production. Renewed interest in
nuclear power and green energy sources such as solar power, wind, or geothermal may blunt rising
prices for fossil fuels should business interest become actual investment. However, capital costs in
some power-generation and distribution sectors are also rising, reflecting global demand for alternative
energy sources and hindering their ability to compete effectively with relatively cheap fossil fuels.
Fossil fuels will very likely remain the predominant energy source going forward.
|
