To: Stefaan Bafort who wrote (17424) 4/18/2010 10:47:55 AM
From: gold10k 1 Recommendation Read Replies (1) | Respond to of 17436
Assuming it is no different than 6 months ago, see how well gold did during the month of November when gold had similarly just completed a retrace to the breakout point of a reverse head and shoulders pattern. Notice the minimum target on the 18 month reverse H&S.
stockcharts.com
Also, scroll down to a seasonal chart for the first 7 years of this gold bull market to see how well gold typically does in May.
safehaven.com
Interestingly this monthly seasonal approach confirms the four outstanding seasonal long points that the annual gold seasonality revealed. Gold tends to be weak seasonally in early January, mid-March, late July, and mid-October. These four points, as well as a fifth in early June, represent the times of the year when gold is most likely to be seasonally weak and hence the highest-probability-for-success times to add long positions.
In addition, seven months are classifiable as seasonally strong. If gold gained more than 1% in a given month on average, if it closed a month above 101 indexed, then it is a strong month. 1% monthly gains correspond well with the 12% annual gains seen above in the annual seasonal analysis. January, April, May, August, September, November, and December all weighed in as strong by this definition.
safehaven.com
Since 6 months ago there have been revelations of manipulation and fraud in the gold market which could add fuel to the fire.
siliconinvestor.com
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