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Non-Tech : Alternative energy
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To: Jacob Snyder who wrote (7869)4/19/2010 3:29:46 PM
From: Jacob Snyder1 Recommendation  Read Replies (2) of 16955
 
Shorting strategy for solars:

1. Do everything in increments, and in small amounts.
2. Decide up-front, what will make me decide I'm wrong, which will trigger covering and taking my losses.
3. I won't short the Chinese companies, even with their awful balance sheets, because the Chinese government has the means and will to fix any problems these companies get themselves into.
4. shorting candidates:
FSLR when it gets up to its 200dma and stalls
CSIQ if it falls below its 200 dma
SPWRA on any strength, probably at 20-22
5. cover when they set new yearly lows, or stop going down.

Specifically, the reason I decided to short now was:
1. recent sharp rallies in the solar stocks. This looks like a bear market rally to me.
2. The decision by the Chinese government to pour more billions into TSL and STP. This guarantees continued over-investment and over-capacity in the sector.
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