inflation is centered around prc
deflation is enveloping usa
on average we should do ok, or quite well, once one astutely recognizes the true dynamism of the former and the dire ailment of the latter
above is why gold will continue to do well for excess savings and platinum should do great for surplus capital
the last 25 years was all about transfer of production
the next 25 should be all about the shifting of valuation
in the mean time, a discussion about hk real estate
player 1: am having difficulty. Have been short HK real estate, by renting. Landlord kicking us out and we have looked Happy Valley- mid levels this past weekend. Cannot find anything I’d live in, even at US$50,000 a year! Its severe as hell now. Getting short squeezed and am not sure what we are going to do about it. Be forewarned…
Hong Kong Is ‘Highly Concerned’ About Home Prices (Update1)
By Sophie Leung
April 21 (Bloomberg) -- Hong Kong’s government is “highly concerned” about gains in home prices and will accelerate a series of auctions to make more property available, Financial Secretary John Tsang told lawmakers today.
Tsang said the city may also raise the stamp duty on homes sold for less than HK$20 million ($2.58 million) and warned that 20-year-low mortgage rates won’t continue forever. The government in February said the stamp duty on homes selling for more than HK$20 million would be increased to 4.25 percent from 3.75 percent as of April 1.
“I understand the worries of residents about rapidly rising home prices, and I agree that we need to reduce the bubble risk in the property market to avoid any impact on the financial system’s stability and the recovery in the real economy,” Tsang said.
Buying by mainland Chinese and low borrowing costs drove a 29 percent surge in Hong Kong home prices last year, prompting the government to raise down payments on luxury homes in October and increase taxes on those purchases this month. Tsang pledged to reduce the risk of a property market bubble and keep housing affordable for low-income families.
“Such mere empty talk is useless in helping to bring home prices down,” Kevin Lai, economist at Daiwa Capital Markets Hong Kong Ltd., said by phone today. “Even if the policy turns real, it won’t help to curb speculation as long as interest rates are kept at a such low level.”
Least Affordable
Hong Kong homes are the least affordable among the world’s major cities and are rapidly becoming less accessible to the residents, according to a study commissioned by the South China Morning Post, the city’s biggest English-language newspaper. The study used international comparisons and Hong Kong government figures, the newspaper said.
Two residential sites, one in Kowloon and the other on Hong Kong Island, will be auctioned off in June and July without developers having to indicate interest first to trigger bidding, Tsang said. That would bring to four the total number of sites the government is selling in the coming three months, Tsang said.
In Hong Kong, the primary source of land available to property developers is through government auctions. Under the current system, developers must indicate interest in a site on a government list. Once a “trigger price” has been met, the site is auctioned.
Auction System
The government will change the way it puts sites up for auction, Tsang said in his Feb. 24 budget speech. The government would consider putting sites up for sale even if they haven’t been triggered, he said then.
Hong Kong will hold two land auctions for sites in the New Territories in May with developers triggering the sales.
Low mortgage rates and excessive liquidity, coupled with low supply are fueling the risk of property-price bubbles, Tsang said. Low rates won’t be sustained for long as governments around the world wind back stimulus measures, he said. A 3 percent rise in rates would boost monthly mortgage repayments 30 percent, Tsang said, citing a stress test result.
“I urge residents or investors to carefully assess the impact of climbing interest rates on mortgage payments when they consider buying apartments,” Tsang said.
The Hong Kong government plans to prevent developers from enticing buyers with inaccurate models of apartments and to scrutinize their sales tactics. Real estate companies should disclose properties sold to their own executives, Secretary for Transport and Housing Eva Cheng said on April 12.
Luxury properties are those that cost at least HK$10 million each or are bigger than 1,000 square feet (92.9 square meters).
player 2: Dude,
There's always Thailand.
My new position allows me to live anywhere. I think I'll stay in BKK. Amazing Thailand. When was the time you experienced a Coup.
player 1: They still serve Jack Daniels in BKK?
player 3: Just found this out: HK property agents have a free hand to hold public seminars on the Mainland and promote HK property. And as you know a HK $6 million investment gets you your residency. Centaline and their ilk have been scooping up people who come to HK for half a day and buy a flat. But HK insurance agents cannot promote other products such as life insurance on the Mainland. This has skewed inward investment toward property. The obvious lack of affordability at current price levels has got to be a huge social concern, so the government measures may be just the start of cooling off moves.
player 4: And the bigger problem is that the Mainlanders tend to buy up the properties, but then do not rent them out - taking potential rental properties off the market.
A flat in my building is now asking $55,000 per month (US$7,100/mo., US$85k/yr) in case you are interested.
I've got one year left on my lease, but will probably have to move if rents don't come down from that level....
Some thoughts:
Parkview 1304' @ $41,000 (US$5.3k/mo., $63k/yr)
6B Babington Path 1500' @ $29,000 (US$3.7k/mo., $45k/yr)
Beverly Hill 1733' @ $45,000 (Savills website) (US$5.8k/mo., $70k/yr)
Robinson Place 1389' @$44,000
Ning Yeung Terrace 1622' @$35,000 (US$4.5k/mo., $54k/yr) (Savills website Reference Number: 126785) I used to live there.
This is probably where we'd move if we had to today. 4 bedrooms, but no amah's quarters. Has a pool & tennis court.
Ning Yeung Terrace 2,156' @ $40,000
c21brightunion.com
player 1: Hey thnx, just having to get my head around spending these red numbers…we looked at some $29k/month places: 3 bedrooms crammed into ~1,100SF, no view, 4TH FL walk-up about 50 steps, in UnHappy Valley …Geez!
player 5: well, you can get a hell of a deal in New Jersey ... yes, my life changes every day...
player 4: maybe you should try and sell [player 1] on the virtues of moving to Taipei.....
[player 1] - Midlevels West is probably your best bet - still think Ning Yeung Terrace 78B Bonham Road is a decent choice.
Just watch out for all those 20-year old HKU coeds.....
player 1: Sure, Taipei… reminds me of Cincinnati for some reason
[player 4] – shall try NYT, for sure. Thnx for that… still trying to come to terms with what we’re going to pay:
Average American makes $27590.16 a year or $13.26 an hour. However, this is the median, not average income. The Average is closer to $55,000 because there are some very rich folks who throw off the average.
player 4: C'mon [player 1].
Keep it in perspective.
The places listed would probably sell for US$2 Million or so.
Just look what you can get for about the same amount in Park City, Utah....(current bid of $1.8 million).
usauctionsonline.com
player 1: It’s (those places listed) a lot of cookies
player 4: But you get to hob-knob with the elite!
Mac
online.wsj.com
SNIP:
That's the concept behind Wolf Creek Ranch, a 14,000-acre development carved up into just 84 lots of 160 acres apiece, making the lots roughly 10 times larger than most gated resort communities. An hour from Salt Lake City and about 20 minutes from the Deer Valley and Park City ski resorts, Wolf Creek positions itself as a "private national park"—a compromise between traditional luxury developments with all the amenities and mega sized stand-alone ranches.
Owners are a mix of wealthy Utah residents and business executives, including sports executive Dave Checketts and former Citigroup Chief Financial Officer Gary Crittenden. While they say they relish mingling with nature, owners also get access to a club barn for get-togethers, an equestrian center, four yurts set up for deluxe camping stints, cellphone access (the tower is disguised as a pine tree) and 27 miles of paved roads. They socialize around the quarterly association meetings—the highlight being an annual fall elk bugling party, in which everyone breaks into groups with bugles to call out to the male elks.
The land abuts the 2.2 million-acre Unita National Forest and sits between two small ranching towns with populations of less than 1,300.
player tj: guys, we, collectively of hong kong permanent visitors in fact, and a fraternal band of pirate colonials in truth, are leading interesting lives in a historically relevant place at a most fascinating juncture in time, when the future of the world is in flux, and day turns into night, for part of the world, and night turns into day, for another portion of planet
in hong kong, we can look forward to the very special administrative region on track to be the vegas of the orient, caymen of the pacific, zurich of asean, and shanghai of guangdong, under own law, and ruled by no one in particular
elsewhere they are talking democracy and setting up militias washingtonpost.com , mouthing free enterprise and creating serfs, taking from some and giving to others, borrowing on the mob electorates' behalf and making sure the same tax cows pay, and keep paying
at the sorry end, an institutionalized old age home awaits most
here, in blessed 'emerging' se asia, daily massages beckon to us, and the dynamism of 1+ billion eager folks at our doorstep wager for us, for as long as our mind can imagine
on the practical end, hk real estate price is high because of simple supply and honest demand, but there are astute ways around unreasonable cost, especially if one's kids are grown and out the door
for example, with all the spare and yieldless cash around, club can be organized to band hk$ 6 million wasting cash together, fairly treated with a 5-6% yield underpinned by HK$ 27,500/mth rent, with 10% profit share to organizer / renter / caretaker when and if house liquidated. embrace properties of high value and low cost, such as but not limited to, and i quote as well as append photos
p.s. any equivalent priced home in n.america would exact a tax attribution that in fact make the owner a renter, and a renter a free-loafer
"This family home offers:
Approx 1600 square feet + 700 sqft roof terrace
4 bedrooms
2 bathrooms
large living & dining area
western kitchen
bathroom/ utility/ laundry room with shower/ sink/ WC
large storage room
private garden (800 sq ft)
roof terrace
clothes drying area
large balcony
premium location
high ceilings
large windows
20 minutes to the heart of central"
lammahouseforsale.blogspot.com
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