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Pastimes : coug's news and views
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From: coug4/22/2010 12:51:33 PM
   of 3961
 
RE: BCON...running the PPS numbers again 12-Mar-10 11:19 pm This is for penetration of US FR market alone. Global markets could double the estimate. Integrating renewables like wind not only increases the estimate but might provide a more immediate market.

$9M - $10M per year for 20MW plant in NY
reference: wsw.com
**Rate for FR: 9500000 / 20 = $475,000 / MW year

2.5MW to provide FR to 100MW (Bill says 1.5 - 4 % but as high as 18% hmmm ...)
reference: wsw.com
800GW annual electric usage
reference: ornl.gov.
**Market for FR: (2.5%) * 800GW = 20GW

**Annual US FR market: ((US$ * 475 000) / MW) * (20 GW) = 9.5 billion U.S. dollars

Cost of 20MW plant: $27.5M
reference: wsw.com
**Investment in FES per MW: 27 500 000 / 20 = $1375000/MW

**Annual ROI: ln((475 + 1375) / 1375) = 29.67%

Cost of financing: F %
**Net ROI: (29.67 - F) %

PPS with N plants, 15 P/E per 20MW plant: (15 * 20 * N * 1375000 * (29.67 - F)% / 176800000

Now let's look at the PPS under a few conditions ...

1 plant at 4% DOE rate:
(15 * 20 * 1 * 1375000 * ((29.67 - 4)%)) / 176800000 = $0.5989

5 plants at 4% DOE rate:
(15 * 20 * 5 * 1375000 * ((29.67 - 4)%)) / 176800000 = $2.9945

20 plants at 4% DOE rate:
(15 * 20 * 20 * 1375000 * ((29.67 - 4)%)) / 176800000 = $11.9783

20 plants at 12% loan shark rate:
(15 * 20 * 20 * 1375000 * ((29.67 - 12)%)) / 176800000 = $8.2453

If we saturated the current US market this would calculate $600 but I'm sure the business model will change by then.

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