AN INTERVIEW WITH IAN BREMMER: Eurasia Group's president, warns of the challenges to multinationals posed by rising state capitalism in China.
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These days, Bremmer worries about "The End of the Free Market", which happens to be the title of his latest book, which will be published on May 13. Bremmer expects China to continue to grow strongly for many years, but the global dominance that's been exerted by Western multinationals over the past few decades will be severely challenged by the increased muscle-flexing of state capitalism by China and other emerging countries that have adopted the state-capital model.
Perhaps most importantly, Bremmer senses a coming change in the view of free trade with China by Western companies, with Google's recent disenchantment with its government one early but notable instance. Consequently, what might happen more broadly, Bremmer thinks, is diminished U.S. government support of free trade, and as a result, increased protectionism and higher tariffs. Over the next few years, tech companies, for example, would have a much harder time doing business globally if the U.S., as it now does with the defense industry, decides to restrict the sale of certain American technology products or services -- whether to China or other countries. |
