<Everyone who owns QC should be looking at the real valuation of this company.>
I look at valuation to get within range, and then I look at sentiment and charts, to decide when exactly to buy. Mostly, I wait and watch, till I feel comfortable.
After the January gap-down, the stock kept going down for another month, before making a rally back up to the 200-day moving average, at about 43$. Now that it has disappointed again, I'm guessing it will under-perform the market, and under-perform tech, for a longer period, at least a couple of months. I think it's a pretty safe bet, that QCOM goes below the early-March low of $35. From 2005 on, the stock has been bouncing around in a wide range, with no clear up or down direction. It hasn't wanted to go below $30, or above 50. At this point, I think we bottom, sometime in the next 2-6 months, at between 30$ and 35$. I haven't decided whether it's safe to hold through the next earnings report, after what happened the last 2 times. I might just wait till after they report again, and see what happens. If I buy, I will probably sell half when the stock gets back up to its 200dma.
Many QCOM investors have been so excited by the gee-whiz technology, they can't be bothered to read the 10-Q. That's changing, with each new disappointment. It will not be truly safe to own this stock, till all the Enthusiasts are out of it. |
