It’s true that immigration splits the GOP. But it also splits the Democrats, who have a lot of members representing heavily white, working-class areas. Increasing the political salience of immigration at a time when unemployment is over 9% does not seem like a good strategy to help them. Also keep in mind that the House has already passed a climate bill, but hasn’t passed an immigration bill.
It is a really tough call as who the immigration bill helps or hurts politically, IMHO. You would have to go to each of the districts that are actually in play, and make a judgment about the effect on those districts. The Democrats face an enthusiasm gap in this election: there are a lot of people who are just plain angry, and they will turn out to vote against incumbents. Meanwhile, the administration has alienated people on the left who should support them, but won't because they too are angry or at least disappointed about other things (including this issue), and will sit on their butts, even though that doesn't stand up to analysis if they actually want to get things done that they want done. As we have seen over the past year, even having large majorities doesn't mean that getting things done is easy. Democrats have never and certain don't now exercise the same kind of discipline, if you want to call it that, over their members that Republicans under the Bush Administration did. That is a good thing in reality, but not so good if you hold very strong convictions about what should be done, and think that the Obama Admin should "just" push Congress to do it. But having a Republican majority in one of the Houses won't allow it either. Some issue has to turn out the vote in November, and immigration stands a better chance of doing that for Democrats than CC, although as I said, it is a tricky calculation.
None of which is to say that that is why the Obama administration and Congress has decided to do it this way. I have no actual information about that. |
