Everybody loves Trina
thestreet.com
19 of the 22 analysts covering Trina Solar rate the Chinese solar stock a buy -- 11 analysts rate Trina Solar a strong buy...fewer than half rate FSLR a buy...
One reason that Trina is a favorite among solar stocks is because it is one of the few truly vertically integrated solar companies from China...This vertical integration which shines a positive light on Trina is also the case with Suntech Power(STP) and Yingli Green Energy(YGE). Yet, Suntech Power continues to be dogged by questions about its higher cost structure, when compared to Trina and other solar companies. Yingli Green Energy continues to be dogged by concerns that its ongoing construction of a polysilicon production plant will be a drag on earnings throughout 2010.
Gross margin is a key factor in the solar business. In fact, when Trina said that first quarter gross margins would not remain at record levels, its shares plummeted...First Solar's margins have been on a downward trajectory from a historic high level of 56%.
The multiples at which the leading Chinese and U.S. solar stocks are trading also shows the premium that First Solar has commanded as a result of its early dominance in the solar sector. Trina Solar -- as well as several other favored Chinese solar stocks -- are trading at multiples of 11 times to 12 times 2010 earnings. First Solar, on the other hand, is currently trading at 21 times 2010 earnings.
...in the first quarter Trina Solar completed a secondary equity offering within a span of 48 hours that stunned the Street and led to share dilution in the double digit range. There was little explanation from the Chinese solar company about the need for cash...
China Development Bank announced that it had signed a letter of intent to provide Trina Solar with more than $4 billion in a loan package...China is standing fast behind its alternative energy companies to a degree that the U.S. government has not matched.
Neither the U.S. nor China has what is known as a feed-in tariff (FIT) scheme, which is the main type of national government support for the solar industry, and essential for the sale of solar modules. Governments pay solar electricity generators a rate higher than conventional energy costs -- in Germany the rate is 8 times the cost of conventional electricity -- and the higher rates are passed on to electricity consumers.
...the lone bear on Trina Solar. Mehdi Hosseini, analyst at FBR Capital Markets, wrote after Trina Solar reported record gross margins in the fourth quarter that the margins had peaked...Hosseini noted that Trina continues to have better-than-peer-group cost reductions and deserved a higher multiple based on its execution (but) "ASP pressure will more than offset lower costs."
Yet, it's really the outlook for the second half of 2010, when the FIT in Germany is expected to be reduced significantly, that will be the key to performance of solar companies.
my comment: those PEs must be using non-GAAP earnings. |
