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Technology Stocks : Cymer (CYMI)

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To: Mr. Aloha who wrote (7742)11/5/1997 9:22:00 PM
From: Douglas W. DeVries  Read Replies (1) of 25960
 
Mr. Aloha and Thread:

There is a great deal of information and emotion to wade through on the thread today. There has been further promotion of a share buy-back by Cymer and a letter to the SEC has been drafted.

I for one would be careful with the letter strategy. Cymer has been in the headlines enough lately for the wrong reasons and I am afraid that further publicity pointing to possible wrong-doing (even if the wrong-doing is real) may also unnecessarily penalize Cymer and its loyal long shareholders.

The share buyback strategy does have some appeal to me. However, I wonder if the convertible debentures contain language that prevent use of corporate funds for this purpose while the debentures are still outstanding.

We need to keep are heads in all of this. Remember that the conference in San Diego has only just concluded and that Cymer has certainly impressed the attendees there. If Cymer truly has the technological lock that we all believe it has this short thing should play itself out in the relatively near future. Patience is the key.

I would like to make one recommendation to all of you longs on the thread. November is tax selling month and I'm sure that some of you are tempted to take some tax losses with the anticipation of buying the stock back in a month. Don't give in. Don't give the shorts the satisfaction. This stock is going to have some serious upward momentum in a very short span of time. We just don't know exactly when that will happen. IMHO there were some very nervous short sellers at the open this morning. They don't like the positive PR (or the positive reactions) and they are realizing that there are diminishing returns to their short positions. I'm currently raising more cash just for that reason.

Finally, the analysts and the shorts are playing a dangerous game with Cymer management. I believe that Cymer management was very conservative with its third quarter reporting and has every intention of blowing away the analyst's estimates for 4th quarter 1997 and 1st quarter 1998. (Let alone the following quarters.) Don't get mad. Get even.

Finally, I'll close these musings with the following from the Doobie Brothers song "Black Water" that I listened to tonight.

"and i ain't got no hurry, cause i ain't not got no worry at all."
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