I'm not exactly fading Rarebird, except I disagree on gold.
Everyone tries to pick the top, and his guess (or technical
work) may be better than others, so he will deserve cudos
if right. I am not trying to pick the top, except I
believe that fundamental factors (Fed printin', valuation)
don't support further market advance, and I believe Spoos
are topping and we'll see another bear affair with Spoos
shortly, perhaps, ending
in SHTF, and maybe ending lower than 666 Spoos for that
reason. Your old Dow 5000 or Spoos 400 level looks good
for SHTF scenario. My bearishness is based on monetary
factors, as I believe these were solely responsible for
this market advance since March 2009 lows. I am probably
early. Monetary and credit picked up in October 2008, while
Spoos bottomed in March 2009. That said, some global stock
markets did bottom in October 2008 and made a higher low in
March 2009, most notably China. Now it is kinda a reverse
affair, as many global markets started topping in October
2009, while Spoos kept going. -g-
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