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Politics : Formerly About Advanced Micro Devices
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To: i-node who wrote (564499)5/4/2010 1:34:18 PM
From: tejek  Read Replies (1) of 1577805
 
>> Shorting China is like playing slots. You may get lucky but 9 times out of 10 the House will take your money.

Dude, you're nuts. It is a classic real estate bubble in China. The govt can prop it up for a while, but there are never, ever going to be able to fill up that real estate before it is too late.

The gov't isn't propping it up......in fact, they are trying to take some of the air out. They just increased reserve requirements again this past weekend. But even if they didn't, you are approaching the Chinese real estate market like its the US and it ain't. Our price bubbles blow up because there is only a limited number of houses that can be sold before the market is saturated.....and that's because homeownership is around 70% in the US market. Homeownership is well below that percentage in China......and the demand is growing as people's incomes improve. Plus, you have a gov't that can do whatever it wants any time it wants. They don't have to follow any pre-arranged rules like in the US.

I am not saying you won't make money shorting China.........you may. I just don't have the stomach for that kind of speculation.....because you are speculating against the Chinese gov't....not just a housing bubble.
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