COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF Message Board

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Technology Stocks : COMS & the Ghost of USRX w/ other STUFF

COMS 0.00400

+185.7%

Dec 5 9:30 AM EST

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To: Scrapps who wrote (8684)	11/6/1997 12:25:00 AM
From: Dwight E. Karlsen	Read Replies (1) of 22053

With the current sentiment, I can't see the DJIA hitting Monday's low again, at least in November. I'm thinking 7300-7500 (big range I know) may be the limit for the downside. The reasoning is that a week ago Tuesday has demonstrated (yet again) that it's very profitable to buy the dips. Also, the sequence of events to bring about such a panic aren't likely to unfold again for awhile, I think. Fears which fed on each other at the same time: 1) The tumbling of the Hang Seng (how many people had even heard the words "Hang Seng" before last Friday? My guess: very few, compared with how many know the words now - so it was a new, unfamiliar thing that was happening. Fight or flight decision when presented with sudden danger. Flight won the day. 2) The USB Securites semi-equip sector downgrade based on fear of the economic shambles in the Asian Tigers. 3) The fact that the DJIA had sold off for +100 pt down days almost every day the week prior to "Black Monday". Now investors seem almost comfortable with the idea that Asian economies are seriously ill, and have disregarded the impact on US companies as virtually nil. However, so far we have only had really two pieces of "evidence" that US stocks may be affected: a) USB Securties downgrade of semi-equip sector (which was no evidence at all, but more of a guesstimate on the part of an analyst). b) Intel's admission that they are already seeing the affects of Asian economic slowdown. Note that Intel stock is paying the price for that admission. I hope investors aren't too shocked when/if more companies make such admissions. DK

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