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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Ilaine who wrote (73378)	5/7/2010 1:00:52 AM
From: Maurice Winn	1 Recommendation of 74559

Speak of the Devil. < out by the rigs catching red snapper > Perhaps that oil spill is a bigger problem than I realized. If it's putting up the price of my fish, I'm not going to be too happy. How dare they spill the oil? This is a catastrophe after all. Emergency action should be taken to protect my dinner, and cash flow. Send in the troops, preferably funded by somebody other than me. It was actually months ago that the price of schnapper went up to ridiculous levels. "Redneck Riviera" - that's new to me and a good 'handle'. Kidding aside, how much of a problem is it really? It's not exactly land-locked out there and if a hurricane comes through, it's not going to leave much oil on the surface in big lumps. I suppose it will all flow via the Gulf Stream to the Arctic but I doubt it would get that far. A quick Googling gives: oceancurrents.rsmas.miami.edu Heck, it looks as though there will be no problem. The Gulf is flushed from the south east, with water flowing north along Mexico and washing the oil AWAY from the coast, and after some turbulent flow in the Gulf, around Florida and north. I think I should buy BP - the market cap has been punished and with the market crash now on, it might be a good buy, but I'd rather the price of oil be back to $30 and a bit of a recession going and a few quarters of profit drops. Objective damages to people in the area seem likely to be minor. The platform won't be BP's cost. Nor the lives. Heck, it might not cost them anything. Maybe they can sue somebody such as the government officials who allowed the platform out there without proper controls, if not the platform operator. Perhaps the platform operator has given performance guarantees to BP. Mqurice

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