Ambrym,
Last March, just a couple months after the 14 January 1997 press release about the P&G and Quidel co-promotion agreement, while on vacation in Spokane, Washington, I asked about six or seven druggists if they carried Helidac. They all said they had it on their shelf, but not one said he'd sold any. Well, if what you said in your post #1199, "In fact when I talked to P&G, all they said is 'we were third to market and have now moved in to second place,'" is indeed true, a survey of the druggists today would probably turn up at least a few sales.
I liked the analysis you did in your post #1222. The two real unknowns are the number of public responses and Quidel's market share. Even if your guesses are high in favor of Quidel, the analysis indicates that if this H. pylori thing takes off, Quidel's got the potential to increase sales substantially.
I still believe H. pylori awareness will increase considerably in the next year or so, because the TRUTH SURVIVES, and THE H. PYLORI STORY IS TRUE. It's not an if, or maybe, or could. The evidence that H. pylori is the cause of over 90 percent of ulcers is darn near irrefutable.
The CDC/NIH announcement is still alive:
An article by Sally Squires about the CDC H. pylori awareness campaign recently appeared in the Washington Post:
Survey Finds Surplus of Unnecessary Ulcers
Revolution in Treatment Is Taking a Long Time to Get Around
By Sally Squires
Washington Post Staff Writer
Tuesday, October 28, 1997; Page Z07
search.washingtonpost.com
and in the Seattle Times:
Wednesday, Nov. 5, 1997
Unnecessary ulcers: Millions suffer needlessly
by Sally Squires
Washington Post
seattletimes.com
The SI thread provides a great forum for people to exchange ideas and research. I'm sure all interested investors in Quidel would find an "unscientific" survey about Helidac sales interesting. I propose that the next time anyone is out shopping, they stop by and ask a pharmacist if he carries Helidac, and, if so, if he's been selling any. You may also ask him to comment on whether or not he's noticed an increase in the number of prescriptions for H. pylori treatment. Remember, my survey turned up no Helidac prescriptions last April; however, I remember a couple pharmacists tell me they filled orders for other H. pylori treatment drugs. I'm sure any report will be appreciated by others who read this tread.
Already a few people have reported about visits to doctors for ulcers on this thread. I found their stories encouraging, since they indicated to me some doctors and patients are considering H. pylori the cause of the ulcers. In at least one report, the patient insisted on being tested for H. pylori. Isn't it amazing how the patient sometime knows more that the doctor?
Mike |
