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To: Crabbe who wrote (409)	11/6/1997 8:23:00 AM
From: Arik T.G.	Read Replies (1) of 686

Rod, 1. Electrification of the factories - I use transportation (car, train) as equivalent to computers. The train being the mainframe and the car being the PC. In the late '20 cars where much the same as today, so I gather that the computer industry has yet to invent the power windows and the light allow wheels, but the engine, transmission, suspension and steering will only be gradually improved from now on. 2. Understanding of economy- Here's an excerpt from usastores.com With two exceptions, no academic economist forecast the crash of 1929 and the following depression. Even more dramatic is the fact that in 1988, six decades after the crash and depression, Kathryn Dominguez, Ray Fair, and Matthew Shapiro concluded in the American Economic Review that employing sophisticated econometric techniques of the late 1980s and even using data unavailable in 1929, the Great Depression could not have been forecasted. 3.Todays meassures of productivity show much lower productivity than is actually occurring - Agreed, but what does this have to do with the question in hand? I'm not asking about the difference between now and '31. I will ask that Q in 1999. ATG

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