HOT TOPIC (HOTT) Message Board

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Non-Tech : HOT TOPIC (HOTT)

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To: MARK TAGLIENTI who wrote (48)	11/6/1997 10:08:00 AM
From: John Mattessich	Read Replies (1) of 74

Mark: The Q3 revenue of $18.757M was great (I had forgotten/did not know that they had 104 stores. My estimate of $16.4M was based on 100 stores; for 104 stores, I would have guessed 104 stores * $164k/store = $17.06M. Even so, HOTT beat it by over 10% !). The same store increase of 0.6% is somewhat disappointing. If you take a look at two other speciality retailers that had press releases yesterday (i.e., Chico's(CHCS) and Intimate Brands (IBI)), you would see some very impressive same-store increases for the month of October. I can't completely buy Orv's explanation that same-store sales were modest because it was being compared to a strong 14.2% comp. increase in 3Q96. The reason is that 3Q96 was being compared to a 3Q95 same-store figure of -7.2%. But, no sense dwelling on the negatives. HOTT came throught with a great quarter. If we take a quick look at EPS : Shares at 4.722M. To hit concensus est. of 0.22, we would need a Net Income of about $1M. My guess is that HOTT accomplished this, but we'll have to wait till 11/17 to know for sure. It doesn't look like there should be a problem hitting the fiscal 1977 est. of $69M for revenue. So far, everything I'm reading is forecasting a decent holiday season for retailers, and that will obviously be the key. For a recent discussion on this topic, see biz.yahoo.com John

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