Think I posted something about sand erosion B4. Here are a few comments today.
AlanfromBigEasy on May 19, 2010 - 1:24pm
My own GUESS is that the flow peaked at 40,000 to 50,000 b/day and natural exhaustion (common in wild wells) has reduced that to the 20,000 b/day range and will be down even more in the coming weeks.
As pressure and flow is reduced over time, the top shot becomes more technically viable.
Alan
from memory, the Purdue professor said 70,000 b/day, *NOT* 100,000 b/day. I find 70k to be in the upper limit of believable.
Retsel on May 19, 2010 - 2:53pm
Keep in mind, though, that as the oil field pressure declines, the BOP valve will continue to erode (presuming that erosion was the original cause for the increasing flow over time). This will tend to offset the pressure drop in the oil field with lower pressure drop across the BOP. Who knows how the flow rate will be affected in the future.
Someone said in another post that the attempt to use golf balls and other matter to plug the BOP was abandoned - if so, perhaps it is because BP realized that the BOP is too far eroded at this point in time to provide a sufficient enough surface area (or the valve is too far eroded) to stop the leaking oil with that stuff.
Retsel
[new] roger_rethinker on May 19, 2010 - 7:18pm
Supercritical crude oil/methane is a potent solvent. If the temperature is up around 450F, it will be eroding the rubber dramatically. Has anyone been watching close enough (onlist) to estimate whether the flow is increasing or decreasing? |
