Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 301.11

+6.9%

Jan 9 9:30 AM EST

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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10455)	11/6/1997 12:12:00 PM
From: Proud_Infidel	Read Replies (3) of 70976

Cary, If the report is true, you are indeed correct in saying that AMAT is near its fair value. However, eps forecasts i have seen for FY99 indicate a mean in the range of $3.25. I have a difficult time believing that AMAT will grow from $3.25 in FY99 to only $4.00 in FY02 THREE YEARS! That is an annualized growth rate in the SINGLE DIGITS!!!! Either the estimates for the near future are much inflated(I do not think so) or Morgan is being very conservative(History repeated). It is my sincere belief that Morgan is once again severly underestimating future eps so that once they come out and "surprise" the street, the stock will take off. Morgan is an excellent player of the Expectations Game; I believe it is what we are now witnessing. BTW, earlier this year many on this thread, including yourself, were looking for $10+ eps(pre-split) early next century. I asked before and will ask again: What has changed? IMHO, nothing. Regards, Brian

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