Why "assume" or otherwise speculate about anything?
Because if we don't do so, we have no answers at all here.
(When we have ACTUAL REAL TIME RESULTS for 2010 that can be, and are, measured now....)
No we don't. We have actual data, but that isn't the same as answers. And we don't have highly relevant data.
The data you hotlink to is the budget deficits as a percentage of GDP for a number of countries. Presenting the data for budget deficit as a percentage of GDP is not an answer to the specific data I was speculating about, the multiplier for national government spending. It also is not an answer to the point in question which caused me to speculate about that particular data point, the question of whether austerity measures reduce deficits measured as a percentage of GDP. Yes Ireland has high deficits by that measure. And it would likely have higher deficits by that measure if it did not cut spending.
Unless the forgone multiplier is unusually large, much larger than what its typically estimated at even by the economists who are the biggest fans of federal stimulus spending, than reducing government spending, even during a recession, does not increase the deficit. The data you present is almost entirely irrelevant to that point. It is not, and does not suggest or imply, any argument for the statement being debated (that Ireland's deficit/GDP ratio is the highest among the listed countries BECAUSE of Ireland's reduction in spending).
After the data, there is actual argument, but that's speculation itself, it is not "actual results". |
