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Technology Stocks : Intel Corporation (INTC)
INTC 36.91-1.1%Dec 31 3:59 PM EST

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To: Joey Smith who wrote (39168)11/6/1997 12:48:00 PM
From: dougjn  Read Replies (1) of 186894
 
<<The stock right now is trading at 18+ TRAILING PE>> And at 18-20 times 12 mo. forward PE.

Thats the problem and it is a big one. Intel is likely to do nothing for six to nine months. Could even go down.

Its sharp rise is also not absolutely assured. Its a great company, but they are facing a paradigm shift. While the need for speed will go up again, it could well face a longer pause than usual. Until cable modems/xdsl modems start to be widely available. That could be two-three years. Now I think they'll pull something out of their sleeves before then, but, growth is currently in question....

If Intel sells 25% more processors, but at half the avg. gross margin, iIntel's earnings go down more than 37%. Just to illustrate the issue.

Doug
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