100K a day is pretty much impossible.
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Gulf of Mexico wells have never been capable of delivering the flow rates of the largest onshore wells in the Middle East, Texas or California. The maximum perforated and controlled flow rates have been about 40,000 bpd so it kind of requires a suspension of reality when people outside the industry start talking about flow rates of 70,000 to 100,000 bpd (and higher) through a well that does have restrictions. Even if the well was totally unrestricted, ie: no pressure reduction in the BOP, it is unlikely the well is physically capable of producing over 60,000 bpd.
From the above I doubt that the flow is much above 30,000 bpd, maybe up to 40,000 bpd.
At the same time I think it has been over 5,000 bpd and growing since at least the end of April. The videos shown in the last hour would seem to absolutely confirm this. There is still a substantial flow at the riser where BP says they are recovering 5,000 bpd - plus the leak at the kink.
A low range would seem to be in the area of 10,000 to 15,000 bpd.
My best guesstimate – more than 10,000 bpd; less than 40,000 bpd.
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