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Strategies & Market Trends : Value Investing

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To: Paul Senior who wrote (37978)	5/22/2010 12:17:11 AM
From: Spekulatius	of 78462

re GS - I agree that book value should be a good point to start a position in GS. I expect more bad new and potentially a criminal suit. I also expect the reform package to have a significant impact on how entities like GS will operate in the future. I am sort of betting that bread and butter small banks will not only be unscathed but profit from the large players being ham-stringed by legislation. In addition they are cheap. I have sold some marginal bank stocks but added a little here and there to higher quality names. I am surprised that those have barely been affected at all during the recent selloff, I hoped for some firesales but those did not happen. I think it's a great time to be in the banking business when your house is in order. Lot's of opportunities to take over weak competitors and/or expand while competition is retreating. I think we may see a total of 1000 failed banks (or forced mergers, recapitalizations) out of the almost 8000 banks in the US before the current crisis is over.

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