Formerly About Applied Materials Message Board

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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials

AMAT 300.72

-1.4%

3:42 PM EST

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To: Proud_Infidel who wrote (10462)	11/6/1997 1:37:00 PM
From: Defrocked	Read Replies (1) of 70976

Brian, AMAT is part of my core position but there are reasons for concern in this market. Even though recent economic conditions have been favorable, the market looks six months out at least. Some portfolio managers are factoring in slower GDP growth, reduced earnings growth, slower consumer spending and even bumping up the possiblity of a recession from 5 to 10%. The answer to your question, "What has changed?", is that perceptions of risk/reward tradeoffs have and are changing. But as a long term investor with the ability to average in additional purchases it probably does not matter greatly to you. (Over the long run, James Morgan is as good as anyone to manage the risks.) By itself, Asian declines may not have mattered but in the global economy we all share, where vast amounts of capital move quickly, it does add uncertainty. Check out the following post and add to that the fact that the Bank of England raised interest rates today. A recession or declining growth in Europe adds significant risk to equities given their relatively high valuations and current growth outlook. techstocks.com Sorry I couldn't provide a direct link to the Bloomberg report. IMHO the big "what-if" in the market now is "if" a recession or slowdown does occur and gets factored into equities how quickly will declining interest rates bring about a recovery. Good investing all.

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