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Politics : American Presidential Politics and foreign affairs
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To: DuckTapeSunroof who wrote (43529)5/26/2010 9:49:39 PM
From: TimF  Read Replies (1) of 71588
 

"The results of Ireland's economy are measured."

Yes.

"The results of the policy are not."

Same thing

No a VERY different thing.

Again see
skepdic.com

If I know that the US GDP is X, and then I quit my job and get a new one, and then the next year the US GDP is X+Y, can I reasonably say the results of my decision to change jobs was to increase the US GDP by Y? Of course not. Just because something happens after, doesn't mean it happened because of.

Certain types of government actions would be much more plausible as a reason why GDP changed by Y or (getting back to the issue that we where actually discussing) the deficit changed by Z.

But

1 - The specific changes mentioned are not very plausible as a cause of higher deficits. Reducing spending is particularly implausible. Increased taxes are more plausible, as a cause, but only to a degree. Unless the new tax rates are very high or the tax is imposed in a particularly perverse way, typically does not increase deficits.

and

2 - Even when the suggested clause is VERY plausible, speculation is still required if you are to say that it is the cause. You aren't just looking at the data, you are analyzing and drawing conclusions that go well beyond the data. Even for plausible causes skepdic.com still applies.
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