but look at this article:
poor google translation (with slight improvements) but interesting nonetheless:
ftd.de
Das Kapital
This recovery is frightening
The American economy is growing at three percent. That's enough for investors for now. When combined the U.S. GDP figures are a picture of horror.
The macro data from the largest economy in the world have given some fresh air to the stock market: The real consumer domestic demand is according to full but still preliminary U.S. GDP figures below the usual historic growth for the first quarter (around two percent annualized) the 16th time in a row and thus now 11.9 percent below the exponential trend since the beginning of quarterly data in 1947.
Yet the state is still giving - almost - everything in order to increase demand as its financing gap of 10.9 percent of the GDP shows. This is thin air when considering the governmental investment as the scale. It is the second consecutive decline, this time with a nominal annualized rate of ten percent. And stupidly, despite fiscal policy the animal spirits of the Americans have not been revived.
In relation to GDP, private fixed investment fell to a new low, after depreciation it amounted to 1.4 percent of the GDP, compared to an average 6.5 percent. Furthermore, since the wage bill has been revised downwards the market-income households receive - salaries of private enterprises, rent, interest, dividends - fell to 67.5 percent in pre-tax income, of course a new negative record.
Thanks to huge transfers and puny charges incurred by the consumer expenses stand now at 130.5 percent of the market-based income - pre-tax. Meanwhile, the domestically generated after-tax earnings of non-financial corporations have actually been falling in the first quarter despite declining depreciation.
The deflator of the gross value of non-financial corporations has declined for the fourth time consecutively and is pretty 1.9 percent off the previous year (consider a yield on "BBB" corporate bonds of over five percent).
The fact that a country whose aggregate investment rate is below the "norm" by 4.5 percentage points and fabricated a negative net export of 3.4 percent of the GDP tells basically everything about its real economic situation.
Even worse, however seems to be the financial side of the coin.
For as the 14.601 $billion-economy, with non-financial sectors - consumer, corporate, government - sitting on debt of 240 percent of GDP having still a net national saving - gross minus depreciation - of minus 2.6 percent of GDP, they could maintain not even their capital stock on their own.
But what do the Americans when their central bank stops purchasing trillions of securities for a moment?
They are concerned about the situation in the Euro-periphery. Ridiculous. |
