Malcolm Penn of Future Horizons on the reluctance to believe the strength of semi cycle:
newelectronics.co.uk
Global semiconductor sales reached $26,533 billion, closing the quarter at $69,181bn, according to figures released by Future Horizons.
Malcolm Penn, chairman and ceo of Future Horizons believes that although there have been now had four straight quarters of industry growth, the industry is reluctant to believe in the strength of the recovery.
Penn said: "Of course something unexpected can always go wrong but the industry fundamentals have never been better aligned. Just as 2001 ushered in the conditions for the so-called perfect (semiconductor) storm, 2010 is now wallowing in the inverse effect.
"As we mentioned in our previous reports, our 22% January 2010 forecast for 2010 was based on the relatively benign quarterly growth pattern of -1.0, +1.0, +6.2 +2.0%; in essence a very weak year. Q1 came in at +2.8% and no one we speak with is seeing lower than 3% positive growth for Q2. That alone would bring the year on year growth up to 28$%. It is now impossible for 2010 to be single digit growth; even low double digit growth is incomprehensible to comprehend."
However, according to Penn, many trade associations and industry leaders are still talking down the industry. "This is not caution but complete irresponsibility," contended Penn. "Barring an epic 9/11, Act Of God or immoral banker style disaster, growth of anything less than around 30% in 2010 is now all but impossible." |
