UPDATE - Citi Initiates Coverage on Alimera Sciences (ALIM) with a Buy; Bringing the Spotlight to DME
June 2, 2010 9:22 AM EDT
UPDATE - Citi initiates coverage on Alimera Sciences Inc (Nasdaq: ALIM) with a Buy rating. PT $15.
Citi analyst says, "Our positive investment thesis is four-fold.
(1) DME is a large market opportunity and we believe Iluvien will be able to capture
5% US market share in 2011,
9% in 2012,
and 13% in 2013;
(2) Phase III clinical data from Alimera’s FAME studies were presented in Dec 2009 and we believe the data will receive Priority Review from the FDA (NDA filing is expected June 28);
(3) Business model is highly leveragable requiring about 40 sales reps to target 1,600 retinal specialists at 900 retina centers in the US; and
(4) Alimera’s pipeline includes evaluation of Iluvien in 3 Phase II clinical trials for dry and wet AMD and RVO."
"We estimate worldwide Alimera revenues of
$164M in 2011,
$295M in 2012 (+80%),
and $419M in 2013 (+42%) –
we estimate peak worldwide Iluvien revs of $850M in 2017."
To see all the upgrades/downgrades on shares of ALIM, visit our Analyst Ratings page.
streetinsider.com
My analysis:
Along time ago two analysts came out and said that Namenda (AD) would be a marginal player in the AD area. Their report cost $3,500. I thought they were NUTS and they were.
These people are NUTS.
If ALIM starts shipping by 4/1/2011 I would expect them to
have 25% market-share by 4/1/2013.
And eventually reach 40%.
Iluvien will sell for LESS THAN $5,000 a pop. (36 months)
(per the ROADSHOW)
Current user options are:
(1) Burn you eyes out with NO GAIN in lines of vision. = Laser
(2) Visit the doctors office 36 times for Lucentis + spend
$70,000+ and GET driver (36 times) to drive you there to get popped in the eye 36 times. OUCH
(3) Use Avastin - and repeat (2)- "Avastin" IS MORE cost effective than Iluvien. So not sure its net effect.
My definition of MARKET:
ALIM (roadshow) described USA market-size as 300,000
people.
PSDV's keeps mentioning 1,000,000 amidst blah-blah-blah.
Mine is 330,000.
Lets see how Citi's numbers workout using $5,000 a shot
for Iluvien:
Revenue
Iluvien
Patients
Base Population = 330,000
$164,000,000 (Revenues)
$5,000 (1 shot Iluvien)
32,800 (Implied body count)
This works out to 9% (32,800/330,000)
using my 330,000 base population.
But Citi is calling 2011 as 5% market penetration.
To get the math to work I have to increase the Base Population
FROM:330,000
TO:600,000
$164,000,000 (Revenues)
$5,000 (1 shot Iluvien)
32,800 (Implied body count)
(32,800 / 600,000) = 0.054666667
Either Citi is using a different BASE POPULATION COUNT
or a different price for Iluvien or BOTH.
FLIES IN THE OINTMENT:
CATARACTS:
There was a HUGE # of CATARACT developments with
Iluvien - and nobody is talking about it. Beats me
but the STERIOD has got to be part of this effect.
LUCENTIS AND SurModics = Time released version
Message 25999555
EDIT
I do NOT expect PSDV to get a "CHECK" from ALIM in 2011.
* Sales Force
* Promo Costs
* Production Ramp-up |
