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Politics : Formerly About Applied Materials
AMAT 301.11+6.9%Jan 9 9:30 AM EST
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To: Cary Salsberg who wrote (10478)11/6/1997 5:27:00 PM
From: Sam Citron  Read Replies (1) of 70976
 
Cary,

That was a relatively minor point in the analysis. As you suggest, the wafer transition issue may be more troublesome. The concern is that capex by semis (as % of their sales) is coming off from unsustainably high levels and that nearterm growth could be unappealing. Don't forget how cyclical this industry is and the likelihood of cyclical trough by or before Y2K. The question you should yourself is whether you intend to ride out the cycle.

SC
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