To all,
Subject: sub-$1,000.
I have just recently started to look at Micron and I wanted to get the threads opinion on the following, especially as it relates to Micron's long term outlook.
It is my contention that their is no program/software driving the market to bigger and faster machines. In the past you had software driving hardware. Programs were always pushing the hardware to the limit, so when a faster chip came out, there was instant demand. Currently, hardware is ahead of software. I don't know of any reason for the AVERAGE user to need anything greater than a Pentium 200. I have seen several ads for $999 Pentium 200 w/16mb and 2.+GB (w/out monitor).
I believe this has opened up a great upgrade opportunity. Companies can now upgrade to systems that will have a longer useful life. It's like there is a pause in the upgrade madness. Our branch office recently upgraded all of the computers in my department. We got Pentium 200MMx, 32MB, 4+GB, 12xCD Rom, 17" monitor, 10/100 NIC, WIN95 and Office Professional 97 for under $1,800 per seat (sorry not Micron). The only thing we lack is a sound card and speakers. We already had external modems. These systems will last for several years.
For Micron and other computer makers this upgrade pause is a two edged sword. There is a good deal of incentive to upgrade those old 486's and Pentium 60's which will create demand, but unless another killer app comes along that requires something better than a Pentium 200 why would anyone continue upgrading?
This is just an observation, but it makes me wonder if the old upgrade pardigm is starting to fade. If it is, then what will drive pc demand, especially the demand for high end systems?
byron |
