Even I'm not that bearish
I'm not either. A sage lady, Meredith Whitney, recently made a couple of outstanding point, though. With 49 out of 50 states required to balance their budgets, there will be what she calls 'headwinds' against recovery as the states do so by reducing the number of employees. Coupled with the new regulatory environment faced by banks, credit for small businesses will continue to be difficult to obtain.
This obviously does not bode well for the stock markets, especially as I think they will continue to be roiled by tightening in China and continued difficulties in Europe.
I think it is insane to be in the markets at this point. Some bargains may be picked up as we revisit March '09, or worse, but to look for gains in the medium term is irrational. I am in no equities at present, NLY, NGD and GDX excepted, and have the bulk of stuff in gold and IEF, the ETF for 7-10 year Treasuries.
It is really interesting to watch the bulls get whipsawed. GZ fortunately has a model that gets him in and out quickly. I got personally attacked, and banned from a bull's thread, for pointing out the bear case.....and while I don't wish ill for anyone, the temptation to say "I told you so" is great. I figure I did my duty, and no good deed goes unpunished, etc. |
