This silence on this thread is eery... when the trading volume is so high. Usually many are shouting their excitement. Unfortunately, this week has frayed many nerves,... I imagine. Here are some comments about the state of affairs regarding VASO, as a stock. These comments are aimed at new investors in the stock market. I, by no means, suggest that I know what will exactly happen in the next few days but I want to review with you some Technical Analysis of VASO at this point. This post will not make a change in the VASO stock price because we have seen again and again that Internet discussion is not enough to lift or drop a stock. Mutual funds are the great players in this and reputable mutual funds and brokers DO NOT consult the web for information. In some MF institutions, brokers are "forbidden" to research on these type of thread. Anyway, here we go.... It will be long...
Here is my take on the last 2 sessions. Please remember that I am convinced of EECP efficacy and that if a physician would suggest to me to undergo PTCA (percutaneous transluminal coronary angioplasty) or CABG (coronary artery bypasse grafting) I would first try to find an EECP center... no question about that.
Despite my true belief in this system I have, again, to note the similarities with previous share price rise before previous meetings and a drop just before the meeting, and continuous drop thereafter (except in March 1996 when Vasomedical was selling many systems).
It looks like a replay to me. At this point this stock is unstable because of the 2 previous days... and here is why: (as always, just IMHO).
1) the trading volume has been great during the last 2 sessions BUT we had to accept a DROP in the share price at the close. Not an enormous drop, ... but still a drop. This is not what one would like at this stage of the game (a few days before the meeting).
2) This drop is called distribution: reflecting more selling pressure on this stock. Because of the high volume, this could be interpreted as a bailing out of some investors... and who could blame them if they invested below 2$.
3) we had a stochastic sell signal today, suggesting that the downturn has been confirmed by stochastic analysis.
4) What worries me more is the following: if we plot the Accumulation/Distribution curve we see that this curve has dropped today and BROKEN a trendline which was on the rise over the last month an a half.
5) The Positive Volume Index curve (PVI) is an attempt to see what the "uneducated investor is doing" and this curve shows that it has risen briskly and is still just about at its highest... but remember... this is the curve reflecting the "dumb" investors.
6) If we plot the NVI curve (Negative Volume Index which is an attempt to reflect what the "smart money is doing") we see that the general trend has been downhill for the last 4-5 weeks!... this confirms that the "smart" investors are leaving.
7) lastly, the Japanese Candlestick chart gave use a black candle without tails, meaning that the opening was the highest quote of the day and the close was the lowest share price for the day. This, of course, denotes pessimism in the market regarding this equity, in the short term.
Of course, Technical Analysis is not the answer to everything and is not a sure, black and white thing..., but in some cases like this one, this should make us pause a moment. Because this suggests to me that there is more chance for a downdraft than a return to an up move. This, of course, could be completely changed if, at the meeting, Vasomedical receives good local coverage in newspapers and ideally coverage in national TV and newspapers... then the above T.A. is useless!
In conclusion and IMHO, this stock is very fragile at this point and one should NOT take any confort in the high volume when the stock price is now slowly dropping. And please remember that the American Heart Association is not a meeting of investors. We need to have some great news hitting the newswires, or, as stated above, great coverage in major newspapers and TVs.
Good luck. Do your homework. Don't let yourself be influenced by this post! Just think about it and decide to sell at the opening tomorrow or instead buy on these dips. I hope I am wrong as I sincerely hope for Vasomedical to be successful in marketing this EECP system that many patients need. I think they will. The question is how fast will they sell or lease these systems, and whether this meeting will give a great boost to Vasomedical. Future will tell. We all wish we knew what tomorrow will bring.
Gaston |
