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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory
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To: TH who wrote (108717)6/8/2010 3:08:58 PM
From: bart132 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 110194
 
No comment on Ben and dipwads... <g>

And more seriously, I'm having a helluva time tracking with gold gyrations even on the short term, let alone the intermediate term. I am leaning towards Jesse's cup & handle TA observation though - it tracks with my main eclectic model which shows the next major turn in the period late June to mid July, not unlike rarebird's note about Larry Williams view... and as usual BWTFDIK. I won't fight what the market actually does.

As far as the M3 vs. recessions chart, the path is pretty clear but I'm watching closely for a proverbial turn on a dime. My estimated Eurodollar component is growing hugely, but nothing else... yet.

And it unfortunately doesn't tell us much about gold, given that gold responds to other things than inflation/deflation.

from my blog:
Major reasons for gold price changes, in no particular order:

1. Limits in supply, "peak cheap gold"
2. Changes in demand (investment, jewelry, manufacturing, central bank etc.)
3. Inflation direction & speed of change
4. Real interest rate direction
5. Fear - social, political, "financial system"
6. Changes in confidence of money or a given currency or the "financial system"
7. Manipulation/control/intervention by central banks and others
8. Mania
9. Technical analysis factors

This is not intended as a complete list but at least provides a framework within which to judge price action.
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