Good one on posting here... I just make sure my splatter shields are at least ready to go up quick when visiting. <g>
I expect a bit of a bounce too, just enough to scare a some shorts but not enough to get up to any meaningful resistance... so we're tracking fairly well.
There's little question in my mind about a double dip or more unemployment problems ahead either. My U7 reconstruction shows a current rate of 22.1% for what its worth, and I expect it to be over 25% before the cycle is over.
My crystal ball is more cloudy than normal about when the Fed pumps will be turned on again, and I'm waiting until the data gives me a clue. It wouldn't surprise me for the restart of pumping to slip into 2011 either.
I wish I had some decent insight or words of wisdom - you're sure not the Lone Ranger on losing sync with the miners or the market - with few exceptions, it doesn't do what I expect in the various futures markets I trade either and hasn't for over a year. It's a good time for being a non-bull and non-bear and just be on the side, especially since I can be quite a leverage whore.
I don't expect gold below $950 or 1000 myself either, but I also remember the almost 50% drop in 1975-6, and how my father took a big hit. I'm just trying to stay nimble and even more in CYA mode.
Here's some food for thought from the last Dow/gold cycle, showing gold and the BGMI index... and the various walls of worry.
Keep in mind I'm primarily a futures trader too, so am a bit biased against stocks generally - but that chart is factual, even though the BGMI did eventually peak at over 1200 in late 1980.
You may already have seen my miners page at [url]http://www.NowAndFutures.com/miners.html[/url] - it has some charts on it that are off the beaten path, just in case you haven't seen it.
As far as Treasuries, I've been steering clear on shorting - virtually every instance of significant inflation or hyperinflation that I've studied show that interest rates react *very* late in the game. Bank interest rates were still at 5% in January 1922 Weimar Germany, 7% in August (inflation was over 100% in the first 5 months of 1922), 12% in November, and were only about 19% in early 1923.
By the way, Lance Lewis addressed the miners issues today, decent stuff - it may help.
[url]http://www.minyanville.com/businessmarkets/articles/gold-gold-prices-gdx-gdm-index/6/9/2010/id/28676[/url] |
