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Strategies & Market Trends : Waiting for the big Kahuna

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To: Elllk who wrote (9286)	11/6/1997 9:17:00 PM
From: Bilow	Read Replies (1) of 94695

The Great Crash 1929 by John Kenneth Galbraith page 90 A depression, serious or otherwise, could not be foreseen when the market fell. There is still the possibility that the downturn in the indexes frightened the speculators, led them to unload their stocks, and so punctured the bubble that had in any case to be punctured one day. This is more plausible. Some people who were watching the indexes may have been persuaded by this intelligence to sell, and others may then have been encouraged to follow. This is not very important, for it is in the nature of a speculative boom that almost anything can collapse it. Any serious shock to confidence can cause sales by those speculators who have always hoped to get out before the final collapse, but after all possible gains from rising prices have been reaped. Their pessimism will infect those simpler souls who had thought the market might go up forever but who now change their minds and sell. Soon there will be margin calls, and still others will be forced to sell. So the bubble breaks. -- Carl

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