My understanding of the AMGN deal is that the amounts gradually decrease as one progresses along the 10 theoretically possible indications. The first is said to be worth $56 million, the second $42 million, and so forth (the average of 392 million divided by 10 is 39.2 million, so it probably levels off somewhat). These sums are strung out along the whole process of development, along the usual milestones: proof of principle preclinically, Phase I, I, III, NDA, and approval. They are backloaded, meaning the payoffs (as is customary) are much larger for the later, rarer, more significant milestones. So one can imagine for the first indication, something like this:
Proof of principle 1 million
Phase I 5 million
Phase II 5 million
Phase III 10 million
NDA 15 million
Approval 20 million
This is just a hypothetical model consistent with the usual structure of these agreements. It does mean that one should not expect a big bottom line 'pop'even from two indications reaching the clinic in 1998 (which I think is quite possible given Amgen's needs), both Parkinson's (whose proof of principle is already established) and Alzheimer's. NeuroInvestment |
