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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 305.32-0.2%4:00 PM EST

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To: Woody_Nickels who wrote (48220)6/13/2010 11:03:37 PM
From: Return to Sender2 Recommendations  Read Replies (2) of 95645
 
I think we need to see the market form a higher volume rebound on the upcoming bottom. In other words there are some good things to say about the current state of the market from a contrarian standpoint but not what you see at a really good long term bottom like March of last year. Although the actual InvestmentHouse had it wrong. There are not yet more bears than bulls in the Investors Intelligence Poll:

schaeffersresearch.com



The put to call ratio is high enough, has been high enough, to confirm a bottom forming in the future:




But we have to keep in mind that the change in volatility that we have seen is a big warning:






The fact that we have had a number of weeks and even a couple months where volume has been higher than the up months lately is another cause for concern:



If this rally were truly over already it would be an exceptionally short one that missed out on the usual election year rise:



I think maybe this recent rally may run out of gas before we see better bottom. I would like to see much higher volume buying to help indicate we really have a lasting bottom.

RtS
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