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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 305.32

-0.2%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Return to Sender who wrote (48230)	6/14/2010 2:02:49 AM
From: marc ultra	5 Recommendations Read Replies (1) of 95645

< there are some good things to say about the current state of the market from a contrarian standpoint but not what you see at a really good long term bottom like March of last year. In March '09 we put in a major bear market bottom and have been in a strong cyclical bull ever since IMO. We've now had a very healthy correction where the correction bottom was apparently put in at S&P 1040 with the 5/25 morning selling climax that reversed up with the market shooting up 300 Dow points in the afternoon to complete an impressive turn-around-Tuesday. The market was acting like it wanted to re-test that 1040 level before embarking on the next leg up in the bull and that test was successfully down on 6/8 when we got down to 1042 on reduced volume. Could we test 1040 again late in the year as happened in the 19% correction in 1998 when we made a final retest in Nov following which the market shot up all the way to the 2000 highs? Sure, it's possible. But IMO market fundamentals have rarely been better with low valuation, low interest rates and an accomodative Fed. We also have a modestly growing economy that will keep the Fed from premature tightening but will keep profit growth acceptable.. We did have a sentiment problem in April with extreme bullishness which has now been taken care of with the healthy correction. I'm expecting we'll be back over that 1217 level where the correction started. I also think that with this correction restoring health to the bull we should be OK as we move into 2011 but I'll have my eye out for possible signs of the next cyclical bear at that point. We're likely still in the long term secular bear that started in 2000 and I suspect we have at least one more cyclical bear in store before we move into a new long term secular bull but that's a separate big picture notion that has no immediate bearing on my opinion. That's my 2 cents and so far so good since I said earlier the 1040 level was the correction bottom.

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