The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : The Epic American Credit and Bond Bubble Laboratory

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To: TH who wrote (108771)	6/14/2010 5:31:08 PM
From: bart13	Read Replies (1) of 110194

Glad it was helpful. But for various interventions and an era of CONfidence etc., in my opinion the 10 year would be far higher. After a correction based on shadowstats work the 10 year minus 3 month yield curve is currently about -10%. Even after just a CPI only correction, its about -2.5%. Best guess at this point, before it starts up the unemployment rate has to be falling recognizably and the Fed has to not be fighting a rise via the Securities Lending Open Market Operations and neither are close to happening (the Fed has a lot more power & money than the small amount of bond vigilantes around these days)... yet. Probably a lot more folk need to see real inflation as you noted too.

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