Intel is probably the best high-tech company ever, and the company will do well for a long time to come.
But Intel and the PC companies created some very major problems for themselves in 1997.
Intel introduced too many new versions of its chips, and lowered its chip prices way too fast.
The result is that PC buyers are smartening up, and realize that ALL they need to do to get a really fast PC cheap is to wait three months after its introduction.
I am seeing all kinds of PII-266 selling for under $2000. (I just bought a slightly used IBM Pentium II- 266 with 32M RAM, 4.3G SCSI hard drive, 20x CD-ROM,56K modem, etc at a computer auction for $925.)
I bought ten computers in 1997, only to see their values cut in half three months later. So, now when I crave the latest, greatest, I say to myself "You can wait three months."
The next to latest-greatest is pretty darn good these days. I have learned a lesson, and I think many others have learned this lesson in 1997.
And smart as Intel is, it can't get and keep top margins when the psychology evolves to this.
1998 will be very tough for Intel, and I predict little or no growth in earnings over calendar 1997. |
