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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 299.67+1.5%Nov 12 4:00 PM EST
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To: marc ultra who wrote (48331)6/21/2010 3:51:30 AM
From: marc ultra2 Recommendations  Read Replies (1) of 95406
 
positive triple whammy from China?

We had 2 important factors in place that favored increased China domestic demand including for gadgets and other chip intensive products that could could to a degree increase the world demand for chips.

These were the surging of wages in china as many threatened strikes and mediation agreements have recently led to significant wage gains. The second one was China's new 5 year plan where apparently the big emphasis will be on increasing domestic demand rather than just exports.

Now we have perhaps the most important third factor in place with the gradual increase of the yuan. That should help US and other exports to china and be another factor in feeding China demand.

I can't quantitate it or the time frame but it seems we now have a potential solid secular growth factor of accelerated China consumer demand that should further boost the general secular trend to new chip intensive gadgets and applications.

We're talking a billion people and this China demand pushing the secular growth trend in chip intensive products is in turn on top of the strong cyclical upturn in chips that is still looking very strong. It makes me wonder if we're perhaps looking at some prolonged super cycle that at the very least will frustrate the skeptics and bears who are already seeing signs of an end to this cycle.
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