Duane, a very good point about Korea. It shows what happens when credit allocation, particularly bank lending, is done in a non-competitive (rigged) economy. I believe it will make the S&L mess look small on a per capita basis, but again, and for much the same reason, the eyes of the world will be on Japan. With the declining GDP problem, the stock market is on an elevator ride to the basement, and that is what precipitated the Bank of Yokahama to do what it did. For all these banks, falling stock prices represent a decline in asset values, and since (1) the value of the bank's equity is the value of assets minus the value of liabilities, (2) the banks ARE headed toward regulatory capital violations at the least and outright insolvency at the worst. Add to that the fact that many of their loans are no longer fully secured because of the declining property values of their borrowers, and the outlook for Nippon is grim indeed. A real disaster there would make Hong Kong look like a mild breeze on a Summer day. Hong Kong LOOKS spectacular because of the incredible volatility in the market here. Hong Kong's real impact though is negligible next to Japan's. I guess I don't really know how much impact a financial disaster there would have on the US economy.
jess. |
