To all, I few days ago on the BK thread I have had an exchange with another prolific SI poster. His take is that every one on the BK thread WANT a BK. Well, I can't speak for the others but let me explain my position clearly. If the market was cruising at 10 to 15% annual clip, I would have been happy to be a bull by now. The last 3 years' rise was simply unsustainable and which is what brought us to a possible disaster now. I do not wish for a BK of 1929 magnitude, which in my opinion, it is not a good thing for anybody. I want a steep correction that is good enough to kill just the pigs who have played the market so recklessly to these unsustainable heights. In otherwords, I want the bulls and the bears to be safe.
Having said that, I am not sure if we will get what I want. For all you know, we may get a repeat of 1929. Should such a scenario play out, keep in mind that every one of us will be suffering not just the pigs and definitely your kith and kin will be too.
As people who were urging caution against the excesses of this market I and a few others on SI were bestowed with the title, "idiot." Well, the fat lady has not done signing yet - but let me ask all those who threw caution to wind earlier, "how do you feel now?" Should the inevitable come our way, don't blame the bears nor the bulls. Blame the pigs who pushed a "new era" paradigm. The lesson here is whether you believe in a Goldilocks economy or a "new era" nonsense, never ignore valuations. Take your cues from history not from the people with agendas.
One simple reminder to all: have feelings to people you know, not to the corporate insiders, analysts, economist and certainly not to the stocks. Yelling "Go Intel" or "Go Cisco" will not help when there are no people to take them.
-Mohan |
