How many know about the "Simmons -- Tierney/Simon Bet"?
In August 2005, oil-celebrity Matt Simmons bet New York Times journalist John Tierney and Rita Simon, the widow of Professor Julian Simon, $2,500 each that:
> The price of oil, averaged over the entire calendar year of 2010, will be at least $200 per barrel (in 2005 dollars).
The late Julian Simon, a professor of business administration at the University of Maryland, had previously won a bet with ecologist Paul R. Ehrlich in 1980. Ehrlich bet that the inflation adjusted price for five metals would increase due to scarcity over the decade by 1990, while Simon took the opposite stance. Professor Simon won the bet, as the prices for the metals sharply declined during that decade.
Professor Julian Simon was best known for his work on population, natural resources, and immigration. His work posits the theory that human ingenuity, substitutes, and technological progress will continue to produce durable economic growth with continuous population growth, despite limited or finite physical resources.
Journalist John Tierney has written, he believes in two rules:
1. Just because an idea appeals to a lot of people doesn't mean it's wrong;
2. But that's a good working theory.
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