More Reliable Cars
By Robin Hanson · June 25, 2010 8:00 pm
The most recent survey by the Consumer Reports National Research Center found that five-year-old vehicles had about one-third fewer problems than the five-year-old vehicles we studied in April 2005. In fact, owners of about two-thirds of those vehicles reported no problems. And serious repairs, such as engine or transmission replacement, were quite rare. (p.15, June ‘10, Consumer Reports)
Car problem rates falling 1/3 in five years is change you might not notice, but if you think about it, its a pretty big deal. Most people are surprised to hear that the world economy doubles roughly every fifteen years; when they think back fifteen years, the world doesn’t seem that different. Besides a few big changes, most things seem pretty similar. But this is illusory – most change happens behind the scenes. In fact, one of the reasons why change can be so fast is that most of it happens behind the scenes. If ordinary people had to notice and deal with more changes, we just couldn’t change this much.
overcomingbias.com
from the comments
*kevin
June 26, 2010 at 2:06 am | Reply
According to google public data, world gross product per capita doubled from 1994 to 2008. (~$4700 to ~$9200). Yes that is inflation adjusted. Thats about 15 years.
#cournot
June 26, 2010 at 7:39 am | Reply
The big changes are in the lives of the world’s poor. In China and India alone, the improvements for the bottom half in terms of access to food, clothing, and basic medicine have been very substantial over the last quarter century. In dollar terms they may not seem that big. In utility adjusted terms, going from a bowl of rice a day to two bowls of rice a day with an easier time buying the occasional aspirin or antibiotic is a vastly greater change than going from a rundown Chevy to a new Lexus. |
